Amakimbirane y'Uburusiya na Ukraine atera gaze gasanzwe n'ibiciro bya methanol

Intambara ikaze y’Uburusiya na Ukraine yagize ingaruka zikomeye ku isoko ry’isi.Ibihugu byinshi byongereye ibihano Uburusiya mu rwego rw’imari kandi ibihano bishobora kugera mu rwego rw’ingufu.Kubera iyo mpamvu, peteroli ya peteroli na gaze gasanzwe yazamutse vuba.Ku ya 3 Werurwe, Brent ya peteroli ya peteroli yazamutse igera kuri $ 116 / bbl, hejuru cyane kuva muri Nzeri 2013;na WTI ejo hazaza hateganijwe $ 113 / bbl, kugarura imyaka-hejuru.Igiciro cya gaze y’iburayi cyazamutseho 60% ku ya 2 Werurwe, kigera ku rwego rwo hejuru.

Kuva mu 2021, igiciro cya gaze y’iburayi cyazamutse cyane, kiva kuri 19.58 EUR / MWh mu ntangiriro zumwaka kigera kuri 180.68 EUR / MWh guhera ku ya 21 Ukuboza 2021.

Igiciro cyatewe no kubura isoko.90% by'ibicuruzwa bitanga gaze mu Burayi bishingiye ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga, kandi Uburusiya ni bwo nkomoko nini itanga gaze gasanzwe mu Burayi.Muri 2020, Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi watumije mu Burusiya miliyari 152,65 m3 za gaze gasanzwe, 38% by’ibitumizwa mu mahanga;na gaze gasanzwe yaturutse mu Burusiya yari hafi 30% y'ibikoreshwa byose.

Kubera ko amakimbirane y’Uburusiya na Ukraine yiyongereye, Ubudage mu cyumweru gishize bwahagaritse kwemeza umuyoboro wa gazi Nord Stream 2.Perezida wa Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika, Biden, yatangaje kandi ibihano ku mushinga wa Nord Stream 2.Byongeye kandi, umuyoboro umwe muri Ukraine wangiritse kuva amakimbirane.Kubera iyo mpamvu, impungenge zerekeye itangwa rya gaze karemano zarushijeho kwiyongera, bituma izamuka ry’ibiciro rikabije.

Ibihingwa bya Methanol hanze yUbushinwa byose bishingiye kuri gaze karemano nkibiryo.Kuva muri Kamena 2021, ibihingwa bimwe na bimwe bya methanol mu Budage no mu Buholandi byatangaje ko bihagarika umusaruro kuko igiciro gisanzwe cyari kinini cyane cyongeye gukuba inshuro nyinshi kuva ku mwaka ushize.

Ibihingwa bya Methanol mu Burayi

Kugeza ubu, ubushobozi bwa methanol bungana na toni miliyoni 4.355 / umwaka mu Burayi, bingana na 2.7% by’isi yose.Isabwa rya methanol ryageze kuri toni zigera kuri miliyoni 9 mu Burayi mu 2021 kandi hejuru ya 50% ya methanol yatangaga ku bicuruzwa byatumijwe mu mahanga.Inkomoko nyamukuru yatangaga methanol mu Burayi ni Uburasirazuba bwo hagati, Amerika y'Amajyaruguru n'Uburusiya (bingana na 18% by'ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga bya metani).

Umusaruro wa Methanol mu Burusiya wageze kuri toni miliyoni 3 ku mwaka, toni miliyoni 1.5 muri zo zoherezwa mu Burayi.Niba itangwa rya methanol riva mu Burusiya rihagaritswe, isoko ry’ibihugu by’i Burayi rishobora guhomba 120-130kt ku kwezi.Niba kandi umusaruro wa methanol mu Burusiya uhungabanye, itangwa rya methanol ku isi ryagira ingaruka.

Vuba aha, hamwe n’ibihano byafashwe, ubucuruzi bwa methanol mu Burayi bwatangiye gukorana n’igiciro cya metani ya FOB Rotterdam cyazamutse cyane, cyiyongeraho 12% ku ya 2 Werurwe.

Kubera ko amakimbirane adashobora gukemuka mu gihe gito, isoko ry’iburayi rishobora guhura n’ibura rya gaze gasanzwe mu gihe giciriritse kandi kirekire.Ibihingwa bya Methanol mu Burayi bishobora guterwa nubushobozi buke bwa gaze gasanzwe.Biteganijwe ko igiciro cya methanol ya FOB Rotterdam kizakomeza kwiyongera, kandi imizigo myinshi ishobora kuva mu burasirazuba bwo hagati no muri Amerika ya Ruguru kugera i Burayi igihe ubukemurampaka bwagwiriye.Kubera iyo mpamvu, imizigo ya methanol ikomoka muri Irani mu Bushinwa yagabanuka.Byongeye kandi, hamwe n’ubukemurampaka bwarafunguwe, Ubushinwa bwongeye kohereza methanol mu Burayi bushobora kwiyongera.Methanol itanga mubushinwa biteganijwe ko izaba ihagije, ariko ibintu birashobora guhinduka.

Nyamara, hamwe nigiciro cya methanol yazamutse, ibihingwa bya MTO kumanuka bifite igihombo kinini mubushinwa.Kubwibyo, icyifuzo cya methanol gishobora kugira ingaruka kandi igiciro cya methanol gishobora kugabanuka.